It’s June. The NFL season doesn’t start until September. Fantasy drafts won’t happen until August, and a lot of this information will probably be useless by the time your draft comes around. So why should I care you ask? Because a lot of it can be applied any season in fantasy. My name is Chris Jester, I’ve played fantasy football for four years and won my leagues championship three out of four times. I study trends as the season goes on and I’m researching right after the Super Bowl because I want to win. Every year if I can. You don’t have to put in this kind of ridiculous time to do well at Fantasy though because I’m here to do all that grunt work for you, well most of it anyway, so you can have a girlfriend and a social life and whatever else you want. I’m here for you. So let me go over some basic things to get your feet wet on our way to the start of the 2015 Fantasy Football season.
1.) You can wait on a Quarterback and you should.
Are Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck the cream of the crop? Absolutely. Is there something to be said for their pure consistency, never let you down regardless of the matchup? Of course that has some merit. But what you have to realize is the NFL is a pass happy league, the rules are bent in the favor of the passing game. Meaning plenty of attempts for Quarterbacks and plenty of opportunities to score points for all of them. Unless your league’s scoring is heavily weighted against interceptions (most standard leagues it’s only -2) there is little they can do to hurt you. So a higher volume of attempts equals more points. We’re assuming you start 1 Quarterback in your league even in a 12 team league if you were the last person to pick a Quarterback you would still have the 12th best Quarterback statistically in the league, an above average passer for sure. If that guy bombs there is little difference between him and any of the next best three replacement level guys, and the less people in your league the more this rings true. I don’t wanna spend a first or second or third round draft choice on a Quarterback when the depth is much lower at running back and I should be bolstering my chances at finding quality starters at Wide Receiver. I can get a great return on my investment in a much later round by being the last person to draft a Quarterback. I will go ahead and list the top 12 Quarterbacks in standard scoring in fantasy and show you the differences in ppg between them. Then I’ll show you the average draft positions so you can see just how far you can wait to still get a quality player.
2014 Points Scored
1.) Aaron Rodgers 342
2.) Andrew Luck 336
3.) Russel Wilson 312
4.) Peyton Manning 307
5.) Ben Roethlisberger 295
6.) Drew Brees 290
7.) Matt Ryan 268
8.) Tom Brady 267
9.) Ryan Tannehill 266
10.) Eli Manning 263
11.) Tony Romo 258
12.) Phillip Rivers 254
Next you would divide each score by 16 to find how many points per game the player scored.
1.) Aaron Rodgers 21.3 Mid Second Round ADP
2.) Andrew Luck 21 Early Second Round ADP
3.) Russel Wilson 19.5 Mid Fourth Round ADP
4.) Peyton Manning 19.1 Early Fourth Round ADP
5.) Ben Roethlisberger 18.3 Mid Sixth Round ADP
6.) Drew Brees 18.1 Early Fifth Round ADP
7.) Matt Ryan 16.7 Mid Sixth Round ADP
8.) Tom Brady 16.6 Late Seventh Round ADP
9.) Ryan Tannehill 16.5 Early Ninth Round ADP
10.) Eli Manning 16.4 Late Eighth Round ADP
11.) Tony Romo 16.1 Mid Seventh Round ADP
12.) Phillip Rivers 15.8 Late Ninth Round ADP
Would you like to spend the first pick of the second round on Andrew Luck when you could have Ryan Tannehill in the Ninth? That pick you spent on Luck could have been spent on Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Demariyus Thomas, CJ Anderson, Demarco Murray and more players in that area. For a difference of 5 fantasy points per game would you really draft a player 8 rounds earlier when there is tons of serviceable replacement level talent at the position. Is the safety of a Rodgers or Luck worth that? That’s the question you have to ask yourself. I’m not saying teams with these players don’t win. But you have to hit on other areas of your roster that are much tougher to fill.
That’s all I have for you guys today but keep your eyes peeled for more fantasy related content from me as the season gets closer. Until next time peace.